I did try very hard to avoid Donald Trump last week, however I am afraid this week he has forced his way back into my weekly musings. Be it the reciprocal tariffs planned against Europe (and the UK), or his “negotiations” with Putin on Ukraine, or falsely declaring Volodymyr Zelensky as a dictator who has conned the US into bankrolling the battle in the Ukraine. Need I go on. I am struggling to work out the game that he is playing with any consistency, however it seems we are starting to see the full vision that the US President is looking to implement in his final term. If you are not on his side, beware.
Back to the world of reality and UK inflation rose more than expected to a 10-month high of 3% in January, up from 2.5% in December, highlighting the challenge for the Bank of England (BoE) as it contends with persistent price pressures and a weakened economy. The rise was driven by airfares dropping less than is usual in January, higher costs for private schools after the government-imposed VAT on fees and, increased costs for food and non-alcoholic drinks, according to the Office for National Statistics. Services inflation, a key measure of underlying price pressures for the BoE, rose to 5% in January, up from 4.4% in December.
The BoE said this month that price pressures were on “a bumpy path” as it forecast inflation would rise to 3.7% in the middle of the year, propelled by higher global energy costs. The central bank said it expected inflation to later fall back to around its 2% target. UK wage growth, excluding bonuses, rose to an annual rate of 5.9% in the three months to December, figures published on Tuesday showed. But economic growth has been weak, with official data last week showing a marginal expansion of 0.1% in the three months to December, following the stagnation of the previous quarter. BoE governor Andrew Bailey on Tuesday said the central bank had been able to cut interest rates three times since last summer because of easing inflation, which hit a 41-year high of 11.1% in October 2022, and because “we are facing a weak growth environment in the UK”. He also reiterated the BoE’s intention to take a “gradual and careful” approach to interest rate cuts, adding that a likely further rise in inflation this year was among the “challenges” facing the central bank. Following Wednesday’s figures, traders continued to bet that the BoE would deliver two further quarter-point cuts in rates this year after lowering borrowing costs this month, but scaled back the chance of the first move coming in March.
Remaining on the story of inflation, the humble egg continues to rise in cost, with the most obvious reason for this the spread of avian influenza, leading to a 45 year high in egg prices. There’s another reason too: not scarcity but elasticity, or the lack of it. Eggs often pop up in economics classes as an example of goods that are price inelastic. In other words, a large increase in price doesn’t create a similarly large decrease in demand.
Some studies have determined that in theory, if egg prices rise by 1%, demand falls by just 0.27%. That checks out. Eggs aren’t really like other kinds of food. As protein sources go, they’re relatively cheap. People just like eggs and seem happy to pay for them.
Inelasticity has become an investment trend too. Think of Nvidia, the chipmaker whose silicon drives the artificial intelligence boom. While the supply of chips is rising, demand among Silicon Valley customers is rising faster — at levels chief Jensen Huang describes as “insane” — with price as an afterthought. That’s reflected in Nvidia’s enormous, monopolist-like profit margin and, in turn, in the near-doubling of its shares in a year. Some items enjoy low elasticity for reasons harder to pinpoint. Netflix accounts are one example. The digital streaming company managed to buck the traditional laws of supply and demand by raising prices several times, seemingly with no impact on viewer appetite. Walt Disney has had less luck raising prices of its Disney+ offering — subscriber numbers fell by 700,000 in the latest quarter.
Some researchers argue that inelasticity is actually becoming a feature of the stock market. One possible culprit is the rise of passive investors like index trackers. These take in customers’ money and buy the largest stocks regardless of their price, pushing them higher and higher and, in our view, possibly too high as we look at stock market valuations today. We spend a lot of our time looking for undervalued parts of the market and year to date this has seen some very strong returns from our investment portfolios as investors very slowly start to turn away from the mega cap tech stocks and focus on other better valued opportunities.
I will finish with a favourite topic of mine that I haven’t mentioned for a while. Whilst Donald Trump’s return to the White House has been great for big banks and big oil, Big Macs, however, have not benefited. Despite the US president’s well-publicised love of McDonald’s signature burger and Filet-o-Fish sandwiches, the association has failed to drive the stock price as much as others.
After a food safety scare in the US last year, investors have bid McDonald’s shares higher more recently as much of the rebound in international sales was driven by Europe and the Middle East where boycott pressures appeared to have eased. McDonalds was apparently a victim of Trump’s trade wars with Mexico, Canada, and China with every day people looking to avoid such an obvious export from the US.
Whether he has a clumsy plan, that he has failed so far to elaborate on, or whether he is simply a stooge for his old boys’ global leaders club, we will continue to watch and listen to President Trump with both interest and trepidation. Markets are being driven by global rhetoric and where there is volatility, there remains opportunities. We are keeping a close eye on this for you. Do have a good weekend.
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