It seems harsh on Kemi Badenoch that her triumph in the Conservative party leadership election is not headlining my weekly update this week – but as we have seen once more, nothing gets in the way of Donald Trump. Or should I say President elect Trump. The 45th US President will now become the 47th President as well. He even believes he should have been the 46th President as he was robbed in 2020! As I write on Thursday evening, Trump currently has 295 electoral college votes compared to Kamala Harris’s 226. Arizona and Nevada have not yet been called, but Trump is ahead in both counts. Not only has he won the election, he has won the popular vote (the first republican to do this since 2000), he has the Senate, and he is odds on to gain the House of Representatives. What this means is that Trump, for two years from the 20th January 2025 at least, can do whatever he wants. His criminal trials will be no more, his experienced opponents in 2016 are no longer in politics, so he is free to build his own support structure who you imagine will all be happy and willing to do his bidding.
Current President Bidens legacy will simply be as the filling to the Trump presidential sandwich, as Trump is only the second the President to lose his re-election campaign, but then come back and win a second term at a later date. Whatever your view on Trump, he knows how to win an election. Part of this is down to the centric views of the American public, quite often so hard to understand. The unpopularity of President Biden ultimately infected the campaign of Vice President Harris, but at no point was she able to stand back and say why America would be different under her, rather than Biden. America wanted change, so how ironic that they went back into the arms of Trump.
Harris has ended up doing worse in every county in the US than Biden, the big female swing never materialised, with Trump still winning 45% of the female vote. Trump increased his support from 2016 in all ethnic minorities and stands elected once more under the banner of “Make America Great Again”. The MAGA culture is rampant once more and the repercussions could be severe. Biden has supported Israel and Ukraine; however, Trump has made it clear that these are not his fight. The COP climate talks in Baku in two weeks’ time and the G20 leaders meeting in Rio de Janeiro are now a side show. Trump has made clear his disdain of joining meetings where the agenda is focussed on anything other than America.
We have had a 0.25% rate cut today in the UK and the US, yet the news will remain focussed on the resurgent Trump. Markets have responded positively so far as he is seen as supportive of deregulation and market growth. Kier Starmer is probably regretting his decision to back Labour supporters heading out to the US to campaign on behalf of the democrats – something Badenoch was happy to seize upon in her first Prime Ministers questions showdown with Starmer.
Quite how global markets and global leaders come to terms with a second term of Trump remains to be seem, but evidently Europe is very concerned with the close respectful relationship between Trump and Putin. Strong leadership appears to be trouncing democracy on a global scale.
The concern is that less regulation and more M&A activity under Trump will make markets and America richer now, but poorer later. However, the last few days have shown that whatever our views are on him, Trump has proven himself to be a winner, a force to be recognised in global politics and a shrewd businessman. What he has in store for us, is it bluster or actual policy, only time will tell. Tariffs can be negotiating tools or inflationary disasters. What is clear is that a very chaotic four years of Trump beckons and there is every chance, as in 2016 to 2020, that markets and portfolios will do very well from his Presidency, even if our moralities will be challenged. We will keep a close eye on the repercussions for you. Do have a good weekend.
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